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A Quick Horse Racing System For Place and Show Bets
Years ago Dr. Z (Dr. William Ziemba), an expert in mathematics, showed that profits could be made by comparing a horse’s odds, and consequently its chances of winning, placing or showing, with the real place and the reward. For example, if a horse had even money, using statistics, Dr. Z could predict the probability that the horse would win, place or show. If a horse was at 8-5 and I knew it had a probability of showing 80% of the time and the show ticket would pay $3, it was a profitable bet.
Betting on a horse that pays $3 to show and wins 8 out of ten bets returns $24 for every $20 invested for a 20% profit. His methods are still used today, but because he published them in his book it was a huge success. You can still view the purse and do the math if you want, but there are easier ways to spot potentially good bets on the site and show the pools.
Of course, if you take the time to learn the formulas and apply them, you will be rewarded accordingly, but if you just want an easy and fun way to pick up some good bets at the racetrack, this is what you should be looking for.
Place and show betting usually occurs when one horse is thought to be quite a bit better than the rest of the field and another is thought to be better than the rest of the field but not as good as the top horse. The horse with the big advantage in speed or class is usually the big favorite, often for less money than even.
The odds might look something like this in a five-horse field…
In most cases, this would not make for a good situation for a bet or a show. Place and show money will normally be split evenly between runners based on their odds. However, if the board looks like this…
There is a chance that the public are so convinced that the second choice at 2-1 will be placed that they have poured some money into that horse’s place pool and have actually placed a place bet on favorite a value bet. Look at the difference between the odds of the second choice at 2-1 and its next closest competitor, the third choice at 5-1.
When I look at odds like this, I usually look at the site totals and sample pool. Let’s say the site pool looks like this…
Place pool total $1,000
Obviously, while the second option has a lower probability of placing than the top horse, it has more stake money to show for it. This often makes the favorite, a good place bet and the same situation can be found in the show pool. He’s usually the second choice bet in plenty of money, but every so often one of the other horses, the guy who’s often in the money but rarely wins, will take a big chunk of the pool .
While there is no guarantee that this situation will be profitable in the long term, and to be more precise it would be worth doing the math, for short-term betting, this at least offers some advantage to the looking horseplayer value in swimming pools. .
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