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- Profitable ETF Trading Strategies – Reflections on Technical and Fundamental Analysis
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## Profitable ETF Trading Strategies – Reflections on Technical and Fundamental Analysis

As I understand it, technical analysis is the application of various forms of mathematical and statistical analysis to the study and description of the price movement of an asset (for me, a stock or an exchange-traded fund in the stock market) in a graph or in data. tables, with the idea that we can increase our understanding of the behavior of the asset. This increased understanding can lead to the identification of favorable business opportunities in the future. This is a relatively humble claim compared to what some traders will claim for technical analysis.

Depending on the school of thought or the claims of guru traders, technical analysis can range from a simple tool of description and classification to an insight that reveals the Universal Truth that guides the movement of planets and waves in the ocean and the psychology of the collective unconscious that connects all market participants at a very deep level. I have known traders who invest a great deal of their emotional well-being and considerable sums of money in their faith in the predictive power of their preferred technical approach.

To be fair, I have known many traders who have as much or more confidence in their ability to analyze and understand a company’s future price action from reading the fundamental analysis facts of its trading operations and the of its peers and of the markets in general based on publicly disclosed financial documents.

I am not very interested in the philosophical disputes at the extremes of either set of claims, other than to note that the evidence for even the slightest predictive power for technical or fundamental analysis is so weak when examined an erudite way, that you don’t trust the most extreme claims. If value cannot be found in the smallest of claims, I am reluctant to believe that extreme claims have much truth value.

For my short-term trading methods, with typical holding periods of 1-5 days, I find that fundamental analysis is meaningless, as trading conditions do not change fundamentally enough to materially affect price. However, when fundamentals appear to change, psychology seems to take over to test it in anticipation of future changes, so it would be fair to say that reaction to news about fundamental changes seems to matter in the short term .

While I don’t believe the technical analysis tools I use have any predictive power or truth, I do believe they help me understand and describe short-term market conditions in such a way that I can frame trades in terms of reasonable risk-reward ratios that allow me to venture into favorable situations for short-term trading.

In this sense, then, technical analysis is neither true nor false for me, simply useful, with the simpler the better.

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